PAR Sheets Revealed: The Hidden Math Behind Your Pokie Wins

Jack Wilson
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5 min

Ever had that gut feeling one pokie is "looser" than another? Or wondered why near-misses happen so often? It’s not just your imagination—there’s science behind it. It’s all laid out in something called a PAR Sheet, and while you’ll never see one in the wild, understanding how they work can give you an edge.

Our team dug into research from the University of Waterloo that pulled back the curtain on how pokies are really programmed. Here’s what you need to know—and how to use it.

What Are PAR Sheets (and Why They Matter)?

PAR stands for Probability Accounting Report. Think of it as the pokie’s DNA—a document that shows exactly how a game is built from the inside out. They are typically meant to be used by the Pokie repair technicians and include info like:

Pokie manufacturers like Aristocrat, IGT, and Scientific Games keep these under lock and key. But in some jurisdictions, and through academic research, a few have surfaced—and the details are eye-opening.

Where Can You Find PAR Sheets?

This is where it gets tricky for the average player. PAR sheets are rarely made public, with a few notable exceptions:

For Australian players, the practical reality is that you won't have direct access to the PAR sheets for the games you play. However, understanding what these documents reveal can still help you make more informed decisions.

What the PAR Sheet Research Tells Us

In a landmark 2009 study , researchers Kevin Harrigan and Mike Dixon got their hands on actual PAR Sheets. Their findings challenge what most players believe.

1. Near-Misses Are Engineered

That almost-win with the jackpot symbol just one spot above? Not a coincidence.

On one machine, the researchers found more jackpot symbols on the first reel—creating the illusion of near-wins more often, even though the math wasn’t in your favour.

➡️ Don’t be fooled: These near-misses are built to keep you spinning, not because you’re “close.”

2. You Might Be Celebrating a Loss

Multi-line pokies often trigger flashy wins that pay less than your bet. Bet $1.25 and win $0.75? That’s a net loss, but the game makes it feel like a win.

➡️ Pro tip: Count how many of your “wins” return less than your stake—it’s more than you think.

3. What You See Isn’t What You Get

Physical reels don’t tell the full story. Behind the scenes, virtual reels are weighted so big symbols show up visually more often, but the math makes them rare.

➡️ Reality check: Just because you see lots of wilds doesn’t mean they’re likely to land.

4. Bankroll Burn Happens Fast

Based on the maths, players betting max with $100 had an 89% chance of going broke in 125 spins. That’s about 12 minutes of play at 10 spins per minute.

➡️ Set time-based limits, not just dollar ones. It helps manage expectations and avoid overplay.

Real-World PAR Sheet Example: IGT's American Stars

It’s all designed to create a sense of suspense while maintaining the house edge.

💻 Online vs. Land-Based Pokies: Which Gives Better Value?

 Online vs. Land-Based Pokies: Which Gives Better Value?

Provider Avg RTP Top Game Where to Play
NetEnt 96.3% Blood Suckers (98%) KingBilly
Play’n GO 96.1% Book of Dead Spin Samurai,
Pragmatic Play 95.8% 888 Dragons (97.55%) Malina Casino
IGT 94.2% Cleopatra (95.02%) Joe Fortune

➡️ Takeaway: Playing online pokies usually gives you more spins for your money. A 98% RTP game offers 3x more gameplay than an 85% land-based machine.

How to Use This Knowledge

Even if you never see a PAR Sheet, you can still play smarter:

🎰 Bottom Line on PAR Sheets

You don’t need to be a mathematician to benefit from understanding how pokies are programmed. PAR Sheets reveal the house edge isn’t just about luck—it’s engineered.

By knowing what’s under the hood, you can enjoy pokies as entertainment—not as a way to make money, but as a game with rules you understand.

Want more behind-the-scenes pokie insights? Let us know what games or myths you’d like us to investigate next!

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Jack Wilson
Jack Wilson Casino Expert
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Jack is our casino expert. His insights can help you to find the best bonuses around, whether you’re looking for welcome bonuses, no deposit bonuses, free spins or more – at the best online casinos.

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Last updated: 23 April 2025
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